Thursday, August 15, 2013

Commodities: Société Générale Sees More Value in Softs Than in Grains

Even though the row crops are very weak this year SocGen may have a point regarding the softs.
It's still early for some, here's the five-year coffee chart from FinViz:


While cocoa on the other hand seems to have turned the corner, chart below the jump. 
From Agrimoney:

SocGen flags gap in grains vs softs price outlook
Societe Generale highlighted the gap between under-pressure grains and a soft commodity complex supported by "increasingly strong fundamentals" as it named cocoa and cotton among its top picks for raw material investors.
The bank, in short-term price forecasts, offered some hope to grain and oilseed investors, saying that futures had fallen sufficient to expect a pause on their "bearish path".
On corn and soybean futures, Societe Generale said that "while optimistic estimates for new crop continue, recent price action calls for a bounce," with "frost concerns from a later-maturing crop" adding to reasons to expect a more stable prices for now.
Although the bank was not so upbeat on prices of soft wheat, as traded in Chicago, saying that its "high premium to corn should abate", it was more optimistic on prospects for hard wheat, as traded in Kansas City.
"High quality wheat should perform well against feed quality wheat as quality shortages of milling wheat continue to exist despite better than expected initial harvest reports globally."
'Increasingly strong fundamentals'
However, the bank saved its most positive comments for selected livestock and soft commodity futures, which comprised all but one – aluminium – of its top overweight short-term bets....MORE
Weekly cocoa via FinViz:


Previously:
With Commodity Coffee Down 55% Why Isn't Your Iced Half-Caf, Quad, Grande, Soy, Starbucks Doubleshot™ on Ice Any Cheaper? (SBUX)

Questions America Wants Answered: "Which Coffee ETF Is Right For You? JO vs. CAFE"