Monday, August 5, 2013

"10-Year Study Erases VC 'Smart Money' Claims"

From Silicon Valley Watcher:
 
2013 07 31 16 00 12
Marc Andreessen, Bill Maris, and John Doerr, are some of the smartest investors in tech, says Wired.
The National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) and Cambridge Associates recently released a study showing that VC funds returned an average of 7.4% annually over a ten year period. For early stage funding it was just 6.4%. This compares to 8.5% for the S&P 500.

Foremski's Take: The VCs of Sand Hill Road have an unshakeable belief in their investment skills, despite the study's Big Data showing they can't outperform a grandmother investing in an S&P Index fund.
 It's easy to see how "smart money" VCs end up with dumb money returns, when they herd into the same types of me-too startups and ruin the market for each other; or force their portfolio companies to pivot their business plans based on the trend du jour in their Twitter streams.

Add to that, imposing toxic term sheets onto a startup's founders -- and it's no wonder they are increasingly despised in startup communities on both coasts.

Random picks
The VCs are extraordinarily bad at picking winners. It might be better to assign investments to a wide variety of startups on a lottery basis....MUCH MORE, some of it quite harsh.