Thursday, August 16, 2012

The Only Thing Keeping Natural Gas Prices from Collapsing Is... (EIA Injection Report)

The support is coming from the above average number of nuclear outages. A month ago if the weekly injection had been 20 Bcf the front futures would have jumped 20 cents. Today they're up 4 to $2.788.
From Reuters:
* Front month seesaws after supportive EIA stock build
    * Mild forecasts slow demand, pressure prices
    * Rising tropical activity, nuclear outages limit downside
    * Coming Up: Baker Hughes rig data, CFTC trade data Friday

 (Changes byline, adds analyst quote, EIA stock data, updates
    By Joe Silha
    NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas
futures held modest gains on Thursday following wild swings
after a government report showed a weekly inventory build below
market expectations.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed
total domestic gas inventories rose last week by 20 billion
cubic feet to 3.261 trillion cubic feet. 
    The build came in below the Reuters poll estimate for a
second straight week and prompted a brief rally before selling
took prices lower. Traders and analysts polled by Reuters had
expected a 24 bcf gain....

...While prices have been struggling over the last week as
temperatures moderate, traders said unexpected nuclear plant
outages and concerns about the approaching peak of the hurricane
season in September could limit selling in the near term. 
Nuclear plant outages this week are running 4,000 megawatts
above a year ago, a level that could add up to 800 million cubic
feet, or more than 1 percent, to daily gas demand....
Here's the EIA report.