Thursday, August 23, 2012

Kase & Co. Comments on Natural Gas

As we wait for the injection report here's some light reading.
From the CME:
Kase Comments on Natural Gas 
October natural gas has traded in a very choppy sideways range between approximately $2.73 and $2.88 for the last eight days. Prices rose just above $2.88 to $2.896 and settled at $2.863 on Wednesday. The move up is corrective, but is now poised to extend to $2.96 and possibly $3.07. Odds are better than even that resistance at $2.96 and no higher than $3.07 will hold, and that ultimately the move down will continue to $2.66. A close over $3.07 would call for the $3.135 swing high to be tested and a move above this would shift the outlook to positive for at least the next few weeks.

Resistance at $2.96, which is near the 38% retracement of the decline from $3.281 to $2.727, should hold provided the move down is going to continue towards $2.66 in the next week or so. Key resistance for the near term is $3.07, the 62% retracement. A close over this, as stated above, would call for the crucial $3.135 swing high to be tested, and if $3.135 is overcome, the waves that currently project to $2.66 and lower would be taken out.

NGV12 Retracements to $2.727

First support is $2.79, the 62% retracement from $2.727 to $2.896. A move below this would open the way for the $2.727 swing low to be met again and for the move down to most likely meet its $2.66 target....MORE