Friday, August 3, 2012

Hurricane Watch: Tropical Depression 5 Becomes Tropical Storm Ernesto (and here comes another invest)

And we knew him when he was just Invest 99L.
For the mercenary among us Ernesto may be drawn north of its current path which means it enters the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Get those puts and calls ready kids.
From HurricaneTrack:
August starting out on the busy side with Ernesto and now 90L
Busy Atlantic

Things sure are busy for the first few days of August. We are tracking Ernesto and now have a new area to monitor out near the coast of Africa.

First, let’s take a look at Ernesto. As I mentioned yesterday, the fact that the storm was not exhibiting much deep convection should limit its ability to bring strong winds down to the surface. None the less, a gust to 63 mph was reported on the island of St. Lucia not too long ago as Ernesto passed by.

The fast motion is not allowing the storm to develop and sustain deep thunderstorm activity. Instead, we see bursts of convection that try to wrap around the center but fail to do so on a consistent basis. I think this is part of the reason why the GFS and ECMWF weaken Ernesto in to a tropical wave over the next few days. It will be interesting to see if the current NHC forecast holds as right now, it looks as though Ernesto is going to have a tough time surviving its trek across the eastern Caribbean. Thus, a weaker system will move considerably farther south of the forecast track. Interesting days ahead for sure.

Next we have newly designated 90L out in the east Atlantic. The NHC mentions this strong, well developed tropical wave on their latest outlook and indicate that it has potential for additional strengthening as it moves westward....MORE
And from Wunderblog: