If you lose enough money to these things you get a feel for what might end up developing and what might not.
Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours...MOREFive day forecast map:
Natural Gas Hurricane Watch: Invest area 99L forms in tropical Atlantic as conditions become more favorable
Hurricane Watch: Dry, Dusty Saharan Air Keeps Storms from Forming