From Simmons Research writing at SFO Mag via History Squared:
TIPS lead CDS Prices, says Howard Simmons
- Credit Default Swaps (insurance contracts against default) are a meaningless concept for the reserve currency, with the real risk being creditors are paid back in worthless dollars.
- Weimar Republic paid back German War Reparations with worthless currency, destroying their economy in the process.
- TIPS Breakevens lead CDS Prices by 39 days
- Despite this, CDS on US sovereign debt still remains near highs.