Thursday, August 11, 2011

Straws in the Wind: Was First Half Weakness Caused By Oil Prices?

Not completely but this is worth noting.
From Early Warning:

Calculated Risk just posted the weekly unemployment claims.  I note the form of the bump up this year is entirely consistent with the view that the economy's main H1 problem was a mild oil shock beginning in about Feb/March with the sudden withdrawal of Libyan oil from the global economy.  Note that the slight elevation in new claims has been declining in recent weeks - just as global oil supply has been growing again....MORE
Combined with the note on insider buying I am reminded that magic is about misdirection as much as anything.