Should the stock market continue on its current trajectory, the Standard & Poor’s 500 will approach 3,000 within the next two and a half years, analyst Laszlo Birinyi said.
Analyzing bull markets going back to 1962 led the Birinyi and Associates president to call for a 2,854 S&P when the current bull market wraps up on Sept. 4, 2013. That would represent a 125 percent gain from Tuesday’s closing price.
How can he be so precise?
Based on his tracking, Birinyi divides bull markets into four “quartiles,” each lasting 410 days. He labels them as “reluctance,” “digestion or consolidation,” “acceptance” and, finally, “exuberance.”
The first ran from the March 9, 2009 lows and will last until April 23 of this year, according to his analysis. On average, the first quartile has a 46 percent return – far below the current 91 percent gain for the index....MORE