‘We’re living on a volcano,’ experts warn
HT: to Next Big Future from whom I swiped the headline as well as the link.
Israeli security experts are casting an uneasy eye at the civil unrest spreading through the region.
On Thursday, Yemen joined the list of Arab states experiencing unprecedented demonstrations calling for authoritarian leaders to step down, and Egypt braced for more civil unrest.
While no analysts here predict any immediate ramifications for Israel’s national security, some said mass protest movements that begin as pro-democracy uprisings could easily be hijacked by Islamists.
“We need to understand that we are living on a volcano,” said Maj.- Gen. (res.) Ya’acov Amidror, former head of the IDF’s Research and Assessment Directorate.
“Conditions can change from today until tomorrow. We must ask ourselves, what is the worst case scenario,” he said. “We are on thick ice, but even that melts eventually."
“Advice we have heard from certain countries in Western Europe [suggesting that the uprisings could lead to a wave of democratic revolutions] should not be followed,” he said. “There’s no immediate fear of any security escalation. The main question is: In the long term, will we be ready for all scenarios?” Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser, and a senior research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said, “There’s a reasonable chance that if a revolution takes place in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood would rise to power. That would be bad not just for Israel but for all democracies.”...MORE
From Debka (I know, but they do have good sources):
The possibility of the military taking control of the regime on the back of the popular uprising to end Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule was actively discussed Friday night, Jan. 28, after security forces failed to control anti-government riots for four days. Protesters in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez ignored the nationwide curfew imposed until 0700 Saturday and the soldiers who were called in to enforce it held their fire. Protesters overturning and burning security forces vehicles welcomed the military APCs.Also at Debka:
The transfer of rule to the military even for an interim period would shake the entire Middle East to its foundations. The US stands to lose its senior Arab ally, whereas a new government in Cairo might modify or abandon Egypt's epic 1979 peace treaty with Israel and turn away from the close relations between the two governments.
debkafile reported earlier:
Egyptian protesters tried to storm the foreign ministry in Cairo Friday night, Jan. 28 in defiance of nationwide curfew imposed on the capital, Alexandria and Suez, until 0700 hours Saturday. President Hosni Mubarak called in the army to back the security forces facing swelling numbers of protesters and enforce the curfew. Gunshots were heard near the parliament and thousands of protesters remained out in the streets. At least 10 people were killed and more than a thousand wounded in Cairo during the day. In Suez, 13 are reported dead, 75 injured.
The protesters later set fire to parliament, the national museum and the ruling National Democratic Party whose offices were later looted.
Some soldiers and policemen instead of confronting the rioters reportedly shed their uniforms and joined them....MORE
Muslim Brotherhood joins Egyptian protesters. Three cities locked down
