These darn cycle charts look so elegant that you almost wish they could divine the future.
Then your higher brain kicks in and you think "If the charts could predict, why would they need me?"
That was also a bit of lizard brain/survival impulse.
When I first saw the title I had to ask "Is P.Q. Wall still alive?"
He has a decidedly spotty record and disappears from time to time but the charts are pretty.
From The Market Oracle:
Joseph Schumpeter was a Harvard economist and president of the Econometric Society (1940-41). He was author of the two-volume tome Business Cycles (McGraw-Hill 1939). Schumpeter’s cycle research is of particular interest because he was one of the first to attempt to integrate sociological understanding into economic trends. He also presented an integrated approach to cycles that presented the Kondratieff long wave as a larger scale of the smaller cycles. In Business Cycles, he introduced a theoretical model for how all the various cycles fit together.With all the manipulations by central banks and politicians anyone who tries to bet on an idealized repitition is bound to be disappointed. You might be better off making prop bets On the Periodicity of Crop Circles.
Schumpeter’s model of how all the cycles worked together to produce long waves included Kitchin cycles (the regular business cycle of 3-5 years) and Juglar cycles (7-11 years), with three Kitchins in each Juglar. Schumpeter also wrote of the Kuznets cycles (15-25 years), but didn’t put them in the charts below. The chart depicts the flow of the Kitchin and Juglar cycles integrated in 56-year long wave cycles. Note that Schumpeter’s model presented 18 business cycles in a regular long wave.
Note that Schumpeter’s model presented 18 business cycles in a regular long wave....CHARTS
And from ZeroHedge:
"The 18 Year Cycle" - S&P Adjusted For Business Revenues Means The 666 Lows Are Just The First Stop
Sean Corrigan's weekly "Material Evidence" is always a must read. In his latest edition, the uber-eloquent Brit puts simplistically worded Fed bashing to shame with an anti-Fed manifesto masterpiece that is off the charts on the Flesch-Kincaid reading level. While we will post the full piece shortly, we wanted to bring attention to one particular chart which has not received any prominence in the past, namely the S&P adjusted for business revenues, which appears to have an 18 year periodicity, and whose mean reversion implies that we are only half way through the correction phase. In other words when all is said and done, when the Fed's POMO gun is finally out of bullets, Albert Edwards' and Nic Lenoir's S&P targets of ~400 will be spot on....CHART