Friday, March 19, 2010

SunPower Maintained at Outperform at Cowen - Cut EPS Forecasts (SPWRA)

UPDATE: "Analyst Roundup: SunPower (SPWRA; SPWRB)"
Previously: "UPDATE: SunPower 4Q Falls 70%; Firm Ends Accounting Probe" (SPWRA; SPWRB)"'
Cowen's Mr. Stone has not been on his game recently. Here's SPWRA compared to the NASDAQ and Claymore’s Global Solar Energy Index (TAN), over the last six months (from BigCharts):

Back on January 15 we posted "Cowen’s Stone Weighs in on Solar Sector - Thinks Stocks Are Oversold on Concerns About German FIT (FSLR; SPWRA; TAN; TSL)". The solar's have dramatically underperformed. He maintained an "Outperform" on FSLR as that stock dropped from $142.66 in mid-December to $98.71 on Feb. 25, 2010.

Here's a Feb. 18 post at SmallCapPulse "Cowen’s Stone Comments on German FiT Reduction - Reiterates Outperform on FLSR, TSL, SPWRA, STRI".
That was preceeded by "Cowen’s Stone Comments on U.S. Utility Scale Solar Segment - OUTPERFORM on FSLR, SPWRA, TSL" on February 8.

Bad calls.

On the other hand Pacific Crest's Mark Bachman:

Oct. 20, 2009
Pacific Crest’s Bachman Says SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA) Valuation Appears To Have Peaked

Nov. 17, 2009
Bachman Recommends to Steer Clear of SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA) - Accounting Issues

Dec. 1, 2009
Pacific Crest's Bachman on SunPower - Buy Equal Parts SPWRA and Antacid (SPWRA)

It doesn't get much better.
So it is with some trepidation that I go back to Cowen's Mr. Stone (via SmallCapPulse):
Analyst Comments – Cowen’s Stone maintained his OUTPERFORM rating on SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA) after it reported financial results, which have the stock trading lower this morning. Stone recommends investors buy on weakness.

Financial ResultsSunPower reported Q409 revenues of $548 million, compared to $465 million in Q309 and $398 million in Q408. Components and Systems accounted for 62% and 38% of Q409 revenue, respectively. Gross margin for Q409 was 20.3%, compared to 21.5% the prior quarter and 28% for Q408. Net income was $8.6 million, or $0.09 per share for Q409, compared to net income of $19.6 million and $28.4 million, respectively.

For the FY09, revenues were $1.5 billion compared to $1.4 billion for FY08 with gross margin of 18.6% and 24.3%, respectively. Net income for FY09 was $33.1 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, compared to $89.5 million for FY08.

In terms of guidance, management expects FY10 revenue of $2 to $2.5 billion, net income per diluted share of $0.05 to $0.35, with solar cell production of about 550MW. For Q110, it expects revenue of $330 to $350 million and net income per diluted share of about breakeven....MORE