Thursday, March 25, 2010

Energy Conversion, First Solar; GT Solar; Fuel Systems, SunPower, Origin Agritech Lead NASDAQ Short Interest (ENER; FSLR; FSYS; SEED; SOLR; SPWRA)

UPDATE below.
Original post:
As I mentioned yesterday:
"Although I've been negative on the stock, I am quite aware of the 16,917,919 shares sold short as of the last report.
If and when SunPower starts to head up (yesterday's 26 cents was feeble) the move could be violent."...
As of the 3/15 settlement date report SPWRA's short interest declined about 2 1/2 percent.

ENER could go broke, FSLR has the largest (percentage) short interest of any S&P 500 component, SEED popped from $5 to $14 Nov '09-Jan '10, SPWRA had the accounting scam and AMSC is just a good old fashioned high flyer that drives the value crowd nuts.
On the other hand, another high flyer, CREE has crushed the spirit of the shorties much as the overall market has and could drop far and fast.

Remember, on the downside shares sold short equal potential buying and tend to create plateaus that catch the stock as it tumbles down the cliff face.

If negative emotion switches to exuberance the shorts act fast to cover and the move can go vertical.
Stocks tend to trade where they should, at least as they pass through "fair value" on the way up or down, it's just a question of how fast they get to where they're going.

Here's the top of the list (as a percentage of float) via Bloomberg:
                               Short Interest   Short Interest  Equity Float
Ticker  Name                      / Float %     (In mln shrs)   (In mln shrs)
=============================================================================
RINO RINO INTERNATION 59.95 4.46 7.45
FSYS FUEL SYSTEMS SOL 56.77 8.11 14.28
AMED AMEDISYS INC 48.26 13.44 27.86
SYNA SYNAPTICS INC 44.16 14.16 32.06
CONN CONN'S INC 43.41 4.35 10.03
NTRI NUTRISYSTEM INC 43.15 12.26 28.42
PALM PALM INC 42.22 64.76 153.37
CADX CADENCE PHARMACE 41.54 9.10 21.90
FUQI FUQI INTERNATION 38.00 5.52 14.53
PETS PETMED EXPRESS 37.57 7.51 20.00
EBIX EBIX INC 37.41 9.92 26.52
ALGT ALLEGIANT TRAVEL 35.02 5.31 15.18
AMAG AMAG PHARMACEUTI 34.75 7.24 20.82
SQNM SEQUENOM INC 34.72 20.26 58.36
CCRT COMPUCREDIT HOLD 34.57 5.63 16.29
ENER ENERGY CONV DEV 33.43 14.99 44.82
CTCT CONSTANT CONTACT 32.83 8.77 26.73
SOLR GT SOLAR INTERNA 32.46 12.07 37.18
RBCN RUBICON TECHNOLO 32.35 4.60 14.21
FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC 31.49 16.91 53.69
TAYC TAYLOR CAPITAL 31.49 1.43 4.54
STEC STEC INC 31.47 12.65 40.21
CRWN CROWN MEDIA HL-A 31.39 3.47 11.05
SPWRA SUNPOWER CORP-A 31.17 16.50 52.94
TRLG TRUE RELIGION AP 30.86 7.25 23.49
CSTR COINSTAR INC 30.34 9.33 30.74
BANR BANNER CORPORATI 30.09 5.08 16.88
PFCB PF CHANG'S CHINA 29.95 6.34 21.16
SEED ORIGIN AGRITECH 29.82 4.17 13.97
QSII QUALITY SYSTEMS 29.11 5.50 18.88
AMSC AMER SUPERCONDTR 28.33 11.29 39.83

Here's the rest of Bloomberg's list.

UPDATE: I intended to mention that shorts tend to do better basic research.
One of my mentors had me watch loading docks at a company that was reporting exceptional growth.
It turned out to be a fraud.

On the long side he would scan help-wanted ads to see who was hiring.
He retired very, very wealthy.