Thursday, September 3, 2009

Climateer Line of the Day: Correlation ≠ Causation Edition

From a comment on a Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker story:
For the 1st year of the President in years ending in 9 since 1865 returns for the next 3 months have a negative summation of % return... from the pivot table.... Sept: -17%, Oct: -22%, & Nov:-21%....
See Superbowl Indicator etc.
The article itself was interesting:

Avoid "Massively Overleveraged" Companies Like GE and Boeing, Analyst Says

...Bottom line: "Any company that basically assists its customers to buy its products using leverage is a company that we think has a broken business model in 2009-2010."

Two items worth noting here:

  • Ortel first made a bearish call on GE’s stock (and a bullish one on its credit default swaps) back in August 2007, long before problems at GE Capital were evident to most investors.
  • Neither Ortel nor his firm have positions in GE or Boeing stock, but their research is sold to hedge fund managers and other institutional investors who very well might.