Tuesday, August 4, 2009

What Might Crack This Rally?

From MarketBeat:

Today’s modestly higher markets added to the heady climb in equities we’ve seen recently.

The Dow closed up 33.63 points, or 0.4%, at 9320.19, leaving the blue chips up more than 42% since hitting a 12-year low March 9. The Dow is still down more than 34% from its 2007 record close of 14164.53.

It’s a bullish sign that stocks didn’t give anything back today, after busting through two big milestones yesterday. But there are still plenty of people expecting a correction. What might bring it on? We put just that question to a couple of market watchers.

While he doesn’t forecast it happening, Barry Knapp, U.S. portfolio strategist at Barclays Capital, says that one thing that could put brakes on the market might be — somewhat counter-intuitively — a blockbuster of a jobs report on Friday. Huh? Aren’t the markets dying for good signs from the dismal job market?

Knapp explains it like this: A much better-than-expected jobs report could spark fears that the Fed might be closer to implementing exit strategies than previously thought. That could cause a selloff in the front end of the yield curve, a ratcheting up of risk worries that could theoretically ripple further down the curve and eventually pose a drag on equities. “That’s what the market could become concerned about,” Knapp said....MORE

If you follow the jump, MarketBeat's Matt Phillips is looking for input:

What about you? Where do you think the markets go from here? Let us know in the comments section.