Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Hurricane Bill now forecast to reach Category 4 strength (And Aiming at New York City*)

UPDATED track projections here.
Original post:
*If it doesn't swing east.
Lifted in toto from Ken Kaye's Storm Center:


Hurricane Bill had sustained winds of 110 mph or almost Category 3 strength as of 5 p.m. today.

It is forecast to morph into a dangerous Category 4 system with 132 mph winds within the next day.

Hopefully, all that power will be expended over the open ocean and the system weakens before it approaches Bermuda.

Just the same, Bill still is expected to be a Category 3 system when it either comes perilously close or plows right over the island on Saturday.

Bill should continue weakening as it churns farther north in the Atlantic. For now, forecasters say it could threaten Nova Scotia, Canada, as a Category 2 system.

Last year, Hurricane Kyle hit that same area as a Category 1 hurricane.

Here is Unisys' Sea Surface Temperature Map, you'll note the anomaly is positive up to Canada:

Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot

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See also:
October '07- Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York
March 18 '09- Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Less Active, AccuWeather Says
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation indices are all showing negative sea surface temperature anomalies.

The AMO, ENSO combination indicates slightly fewer hurricanes with those that do arise having a better than average chance of an east coast landfall* vs. Gulf of Mexico strikes. However the most recent ENSO number -.41 is below the La Nina threshold of -.5 degree.
March 19 '09-More on the Possibility of a Hurricane Striking New York City