We ended "Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Less Active, AccuWeather Says" with a link to an interesting paper on Long Island, Jersey, NYC hurricanes and the comments:
...The AMO, ENSO combination indicates slightly fewer hurricanes with those that do arise having a better than average chance of an east coast landfall* vs. Gulf of Mexico strikes....Ken Kaye of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel has more detail than I did:
...*Can you imagine the headlines when the next New York hurricane hits?....
...Further, Bastardi thinks Atlantic storms will form closer to the U.S. coastline than they did last year. That would imperil the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coastline more so than Florida, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, as shown in the AccuWeather graphic at right.
-- La Niña will dissipate.
-- An increase in Saharan dust and dry air will hamper storms in the Atlantic.
-- Water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic will cool a bit....