Thursday, March 19, 2009

More on the Possibility of a Hurricane Striking New York City

We ended "Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Less Active, AccuWeather Says" with a link to an interesting paper on Long Island, Jersey, NYC hurricanes and the comments:
...The AMO, ENSO combination indicates slightly fewer hurricanes with those that do arise having a better than average chance of an east coast landfall* vs. Gulf of Mexico strikes....

...*Can you imagine the headlines when the next New York hurricane hits?....
Ken Kaye of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel has more detail than I did:

...Further, Bastardi thinks Atlantic storms will form closer to the U.S. coastline than they did last year. That would imperil the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coastline more so than Florida, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, as shown in the AccuWeather graphic at right.

Bastardi’s reasoning:

-- La Niña will dissipate.

-- An increase in Saharan dust and dry air will hamper storms in the Atlantic.

-- Water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic will cool a bit....