The market action of 2008-2009 has been very very similar to 1937-1938. That cyclical bull lasted only seven months but it gained 65%. That rally peaked at the 62% retracement. The peak before the top occurred at the 50% retracement. The black lines show the Fibonacci retracements: 38%, 50%, 62%.
As far as the S&P 500, here are the retracements: 1012, 1121, 1230. If the current rally follows the same pattern, then we’d expect a move to 1121 a pullback below 1012 and then a final advance to 1230.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
1937-38 Markets vs. Current S&P 500 Fibbonacci Targets
From Trendsman Research: