Thursday, August 27, 2009

Four Stages of a Secular Bear Market

If you do a 'Search Blog' for secular bear market, you'll see this is something I think is important.
It is, for those folks who care about expected future equity returns. Morgan Stanley has put out a nice simple chart on what they look like. Via The Big Picture:

As promised earlier, I pulled up a chart showing the stages of Secular Bear Markets historically.

This fascinating composite chart below is courtesy of the Strategy desk of Morgan Stanley Europe. It shows what the average of the past 19 major Bear markets globally have looked like:

Typical Secular Bear Market and Its Aftermath



The Chart represents typical secular bear markets based on MS’s sample of 19 such bear markets as shown after the jump....MORE