Wednesday, February 11, 2009

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Woohoo, the 467th WASDE!
From the USDA (40 page PDF):

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supply, use, and stocks projections for 2008/09 are unchanged this month. The season-average price received by producers is projected at $6.70 to $6.90 per bushel, up 20 cents on the bottom end of the range reflecting continued strength in reported farm prices.

Global 2008/09 wheat production is nearly unchanged from last month at 682.8 million tons. Reductions for Argentina and EU-27 are nearly offset by increases for Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Production is lowered 1.1 million tons for Argentina as drought affected yields have proven even lower than previously thought. EU-27 output is reduced 0.2 million tons on official government revisions for the United Kingdom and Hungary. Russia and Ukraine production are raised 0.7 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, on the latest government indications.

Production is raised 0.2 million tons for Australia on higher yields. Australia production is also raised 0.8 million tons for 2007/08 in line with upward government revisions to area and yields....

...The projected season-average farm price range for corn is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $3.65 to $4.15 per bushel. The price range for sorghum is narrowed 15 cents on each end to $3.05 to $3.35 per bushel. The oats farm price is raised 10 cents on each end of the range to $3.00 to $3.20 per bushel based on reported prices to date.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2008/09 are lowered 0.9 million tons this month with reductions in corn production for South America and India only partly offset by increases for FSU-12 coarse grains, increases for Australia barley and sorghum, and higher barley beginning stocks in Australia based on revisions to 2007/08 production.

World corn production for 2008/09 is lowered 4.6 million tons. Argentina production is lowered 3.0 million tons as continued drought and heat during late January further reduced prospects for yields and harvested area in key central growing areas....