The famed Rosy Scenario, coined in the early days of the Reagan White House when large tax cuts and higher defense spending were assumed to be paid for in part by strong economic growth, is a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s first multiyear budget.After contracting at a 1.2% rate in 2009, a more modest drop than the Congressional Budget Office and Blue Chip Consensus forecasts assume, the White House sees growth domestic product growth snapping back by 3.2% next year and then 4% or higher the three years after that.
The last time the economy preformed that well was the New Economy heyday of the late 1990s.
The 2010-2013 forecasts are slightly more optimistic than CBO but much rosier — in some cases by well over one percentage point — than what the Blue Chip Consensus calls for. A separate private-sector gauge, the Survey of Professional Forecasts, also projects a much weaker economy this year and next.
As a result, the unemployment rate at the end of President Barack Obama’s term in 2013 will be just 5.2%, according to the White House. The rate currently sits at 7.6%, and many economists expect it to climb past 9% before the recession ends....MORE
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Obama Budget Relies on Rosy Economic Forecasts
From the WSJ's Real Time Economics blog: