From Reuters via the Taiwan Times:
The European Commission will not intervene to support the market for European carbon emissions where futures prices have nosedived along with the economic downturn, the EC's chief climate change negotiator said yesterday....
...Benchmark EU allowances closed at 8.25 euros (US$10.63) a ton on Thursday, after falling by more than 70 percent since July last year. EUAs were trading around 8.35 euros in early yesterday trade.
"If you look at the legislation, there is no way the Commission can intervene in the market to support prices or set any kind of floor price," Runge-Metzger added. "That is something we leave to market forces, otherwise we will not have a market."
Analysts are predicting EUAs will fall further, taking prices for U.N. offsets called CERs with them.
The thing to remember about carbon markets is that they have not sprung up organically. (there's a play on words in there, somewhere).
Rather, they are an artificial construct, a political creation.
The analyst would probably be as well served by a backround in Poli Sci. as by that Wharton MBA.