Goldman Says Oil Unlikely to Rally; Risk to Forecast
Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst who predicted a crude ``super spike'' in March 2005, said a sustained rally in the oil price is unlikely because of concern demand will weaken.
Murti and other equity energy analysts said slower global economic growth and technical selling pressure has made its $120 a barrel price forecast for the fourth quarter vulnerable to ``downside'' risk, according to a research note dated Oct. 6.
Banks have been forced to slash their oil price forecasts after crude futures slumped from their July 11 of record $147.27, driven lower by speculation the slowing global economy will erode consumer demand. Oil has fallen more than 37 percent since then and OPEC President Chakib Khelil yesterday said prices will continue to decline next year....MORE