Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Bear Market Rallies

Lifted from FT Alphaville:

Some statistics worth thinking about in light of Monday’s monster rally on Wall Street (and the subsequent reversal on Wednesday). Hat Tip: a friendly broker.

There have been been 36 days in the last 80 years where the S&P 500 has climbed more than 6% in a single session.

Of these, 32 occurred between 1929 and 1933 with 12 occurring before the bear market hit rock bottom in June 1932.

The four 6% plus days not in the 1929-1933 period occurred after the 1987 crash, two days in the late 1930s and this past Monday’s blockbuster +11.58% gain.

Conclusion: it’s much too early to tell whether last Friday marked the low for this bear market.