And if the latest work from Chinese plant geneticists is any indication, it never will be again.*
From Reuters:
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 9 (Reuters) - The prospect of renewed Chinese interest in U.S. farm goods sparked excitement across grain markets last month, but enthusiasm has faded with no purchases immediately materializing.The initial bullish reaction wasn’t surprising. China has dominated growth in U.S. agriculture, helping drive record soybean exports, supporting grain prices and emerging as a major buyer of everything from corn to beef.Last month's trade agreement, which included at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases beyond existing soybean deals, revived hopes that China could again become a leading driver of growth for American farm exports.But years of trade tensions and South America's rise have changed the dynamic. China remains enormously important to U.S. agriculture, though its role now varies by commodity.
SOYBEANS: CHINA LEFT THE U.S., NOT THE MARKET
China's dependence on U.S. soybeans has fallen dramatically in recent years, though its influence over the global soybean market has not. The Asian buyer’s share of global imports has remained relatively steady around 60% for nearly two decades.Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans have sharply declined from the record levels seen earlier this decade as Brazil expanded production and exports. U.S. soybean export volume to China for the 2025/26 season, which ends on August 31, is set to fall almost 50% on the year to a 19-year low, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.But by the end of May, China had secured more than 90% of its 2025/26 needs, according to industry estimates, on par with last year’s pace thanks to a notable boost in South American purchases.Recent trade deals suggest that U.S. soybean exports to China could double in 2026/27, but the overall picture is less rosy....
....MUCH MORE including some handy charts and graphs:
