From the cat bond/ILS/re/insurance mavens at Artemis, June 10:
CSU lowers Atlantic hurricane forecast for 2026, landfall probabilities also reduced
The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has issued the first update to its seasonal forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, now calling for slightly less activity in terms of named storms and hurricanes and giving reduced probabilities of landfall in key regions, citing the increased likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño as a primary factor.
At its June forecast update, the Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has updated the numbers to call for 11 named tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes this 2026 season.
That’s a reduction from the 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes it had called for back in April, when its first seasonal forecast was made.
In addition, the team’s forecast for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the 2026 hurricane season had been lowered to an Index value of 70 in the June update, from 90 at the April forecast.
The CSU team cites, “The increased likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño as a primary factor for the prediction of 11 named storms (e.g., tropical storms and hurricanes), of which they anticipate five to become hurricanes and two to become major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
“These numbers are below the long-term seasonal average of 14, seven and three, respectively. For reference, the April forecast called for 13, six and two, respectively.”....
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