Thursday, April 9, 2026

"US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised lower to a 0.5% rate" (blame the shutdown)

From Reuters, April 9:

U.S. economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter amid downgrades to business investment, including inventory accumulation, but corporate profits increased ​sharply, government data showed on Thursday.
 
Gross domestic product increased at a downwardly ‌revised 0.5% annualized rate, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 0.7% pace in the fourth ​quarter. The advance estimate had put GDP growth at 1.4%.
 
Economists polled by ​Reuters had forecast GDP growth would be unrevised at a 0.7% ⁠rate. Revisions to the fourth quarter's growth pace reflected downgrades to business spending ​on intellectual products as well as inventories.
 
Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more ​than two-thirds of the economy, was revised down to a 1.9% pace from the previously reported 2.0% rate.
Last year's shutdown of the government was the key driver of the slowdown from the ​third quarter's 4.4% growth pace....
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And at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 9: 
 
GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025 
Q4 2025 (3rd)
+0.5%
Q3 2025
+4.4%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 4.4 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. At the state level, real GDP ranged from a 3.8 percent increase in North Dakota to a 8.3 percent decrease in the District of Columbia....

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