It's possible we'll be reading "A tale of two hurricane seasons" by the end of November.
From the cat bond (and ILS and re/insurance and...) mavens at Artemis, March 30:
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be shaped by shifting climate patterns in the Pacific, as a developing El Niño may influence and perhaps depress tropical storm formation, but a forecast from Accuweather highlights the potential for rapid intensification and warns of three to five direct storm impacts on the United States.
Waters are already warm in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf in regions where early tropical storm formation has tended to occur, which leads Accuweather to forecast a chance of an earlier start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
As a result, “It may not take much to have tropical activity fire up around the same time that the season officially gets underway,” Accuweather explained.
Adding that, “The early part of the hurricane season is when “homegrown development” is most frequent. This can happen if a storm or front that moves across North America stalls over the Gulf, western Caribbean or western Atlantic Ocean. As it sits over warm water, it may eventually transform into a tropical depression, tropical storm or even a hurricane.
“When storms develop so close to land, it means there is less time for coastal residents to prepare for potential impacts.”
But, El Niño conditions are expected to be the main influence to the overall season in terms of hurricane and storm formation, meaning storm numbers may be around or even below historical averages, Accuweather explains.
As a result, the Accuweather early forecast for 2026 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane activity calls for 11 to 16 named storms, with between four to seven hurricanes and two to four intensifying to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
In addition, Accuweather forecasts between three and five direct storm impacts on the United States in the 2026 hurricane season, although these could be named tropical storms or stronger.
However, they also explain that, “A direct impact to land can occur even if a storm doesn’t make landfall. It can also include tropical-storm-force winds reaching land, flooding rain from a storm just offshore, or a storm surge of at least 2 feet along the coast.”
While El Nino is expected to continue developing, some forecasts suggest it could be quite strong by later in the year, and this can depress storm formation it does not mean the season will be uneventful in human and financial impact terms. Just one storm can cause severe impacts to lives and livelihoods, as well as to insured and uninsured assets....
....MUCH MORE
