From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, February 10:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 3.7 percent on February 10, down from 4.2 percent on February 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.1 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.4 percent and 6.7 percent.
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2025: Q4
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)
