The 43-day (almost half the quarter) government shutdown whacked the economy.
From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, February 20:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.
The advance report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for January 29, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.
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The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. For more information, refer to the "Technical Notes" below.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the prior quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the third quarter....
....MUCH MORE
