Let's try this again: From those wonderful folks who brought us the "defeat Russia via attrition to destabilize the country and thus bring about regime change" plan.*
From the RAND Corporation, Feb 20, 2026:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought from the very start of his “special military operation” in Ukraine to prevent the conflict from intruding into the lives of Russian citizens, particularly those who live in Moscow and St. Petersburg. As the war enters its fifth year, this effort is increasingly failing.
....MUCH MOREUkraine is attacking military facilities and refineries around Russia, causing significant damage and producing shortages in gasoline. Western sanctions are biting harder into the fragile Russian economy. Along with huge expenditures on the military (which now receives 8 percent of GDP), sanctions are restricting the flow of long-term capital for the civilian economy. Russia's energy revenues dropped by about a fifth in 2025. Fiscal problems are growing, and the country may be on the verge of a serious recession. The budget deficit in 2025 was 2.5 percent of GDP, five times higher than was predicted at the beginning of the year. To raise revenue, VAT taxes have been raised, and a “technological fee” will be assessed on imported electronics and household appliances.
Beyond the economy, there is growing evidence of the war's negative, long-term impacts on Russian society, from rising crime and corruption to worsening political repression. These portend greater dislocations and strained social cohesion.
The Impact of Declining Population
The war in Ukraine has caused a horrendous loss of life, which will only exacerbate the long-term impact on Russia's declining population. Despite decades-long efforts by Russian governments, the birth rate (fertility) officially remains no higher than it was in 1991, 1.78 births per woman. Experts believe it is likely much less, around 1.5 births (2.1 births are required to maintain population).In a 2024 report for the Atlantic Council, Professor Harley Balzer wrote:
“United Nations scenarios project Russia's population in 2100 to be between 74 million and 112 million compared with the current 146 million. The most recent UN projections are for the world's population to decline by about 20 percent by 2100. The estimate for Russia is a decline of 25 to 50 percent.”As early as 2023, Fareed Zakaria observed that Russia was “losing the 21st century.” He wrote in the Washington Post:
What stands out in Russia is its mortality. In 2019, before covid [sic] and the invasion of Ukraine, the World Health Organization estimated a 15-year-old boy in Russia could expect to live another 53.7 years, which was the same as in Haiti and below the life expectancy for boys his age in Yemen, Mali, and South Sudan. Swiss boys around the same age could expect to live more than 13 years longer.The brutal war could make such mortality figures even worse. The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently published a report which estimates that Russians killed, wounded and missing in the war may total up to 1.2 million, of which 325,000 may have been killed. Ukraine's casualties, by contrast, are estimated to range from 500,000 to 600,000. Of those, 100,000 to 140,000 may have died.
The war is already having a huge impact on the Russian labor market. Shortages abound. Russia's labor minister is reported to have told Putin last year that Russia will have a shortage of 2.4 million workers by 2030. Others put the number higher. Young men can now make much more by signing up for the military (with substantial bonuses) than they can working in civilian jobs in their home oblasts. Not surprisingly, businesses now have to pay higher salaries, which in turn drives up costs and inflation (officially set at 6 to 7 percent in September 2025 but probably higher). Russia used to rely on migrant labor from Central Asia, but that has diminished in the wake of the security crackdown after the 2024 attack on the Crocus City Hall theater by Tajik terrorists. Now Russia is turning to migrant labor from India and Sri Lanka.
Returning Soldiers and the Growing Incidence of Crime
Russian state media reported in January that there were currently about 250,000 unemployed veterans of the “special military operation” who had returned to Russia from Ukraine. Almost as soon as the news was published, the story disappeared, undoubtedly to prevent raising public anxiety. Many Russians remember the difficult return of Soviet-era war veterans from Afghanistan, which involved fewer people. Crime, drug use, and domestic instability surged. Some of those soldiers contributed to the growth of organized crime.The government is reportedly working to help soldiers returning from Ukraine (PDF) rejoin civic life, but it will not be easy. Russia may have the resources to provide assistance, but it does not have the social infrastructure capacity, particularly in health care and law enforcement. Many servicemen are likely to be able to earn only a fraction of the money they earned at war, potentially causing discontent. Putin sees this as a potential political risk, according to Russian sources who spoke to Reuters, and he wants to manage it to avoid destabilizing society and the Russian political system....
*We first posted the RAND plan sixteen days before Russia invaded.
From February 8, 2022:
The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself
I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:
1. Arming Ukraine ;
2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.
....MUCH MORE
The study is from 2019, its basic idea is to get Russia to overextend itself both militarily and more especially financially.
On January 12 Victoria Nuland showed this approach is top-of-mind in the Biden Administration. From Interfax Ukraine:
Nuland: I'm going to let Russians speak for themselves how long they can financially back placement of troops near Ukraine
U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland did not make assumptions about how long the Russian Federation can afford to keep a large grouping of forces near Ukraine.
"I am going to let the Russians speak for themselves," she said, answering a question at a State Department briefing about "how long you think Russia can financially back the placement of troops along the Russia-Ukrainian border."
Nuland also said the transfer of a large group of forces to the border with Ukraine was not a cheap operation.
"These kind of deployments, hundred thousand troops out of barracks and on the Ukrainian border are extremely expensive, as is the deployment of this kind of weaponry in the cold winter," she said.
That was followed by "The U.S. Is Implementing The RAND Corporation Strategy To Cripple Russia" on March 25, 2022.
And then in 2024 by:
RAND Corporation: Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia (full 3.4mb download site)
If interested see also July 2022's "RAND Corporation on Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies And Influence Campaigns/Information Warfare"
And October 2023's "RAND: "'ruth Decay Is Putting U.S. National Security at Risk'"
This is pretty funny. The following essay expounds on the fact that there is a lack of trust in the country and somehow manages to avoid mentioning the lies of government agencies and the lies of the media for the last seven or eight years.
It's akin to, and as crazy as, Barbara Fried saying the prosecutors have ruined her family's reputation. Sam and Gabe and herself and Mr. Bankman. Reputations ruined.
And many more. We find RAND to usually be commonsensical with that last post being an exception that borders on farce.
