Back before the dot.bomb crash and bear market of 2000 - 2002 MSFT was known among day-traders as Mr, Softee.*
From SemiAnalysis, November 12:
"The Big Pause", AI Tokens Factory Economics Stack, OpenAI, Neocloud Renting, GitHub Copilot, MAI and Maia
Microsoft was at the top of AI in 2023 and 2024, but then a year ago they changed course drastically. They paused their datacenter construction significantly and slowed down their commitments to OpenAI. We called this out a year ago to datacenter model clients and later wrote a newsletter piece about it.
2025 was the story of OpenAI diversifying away from Microsoft, with Oracle, CoreWeave, Nscale, SB Energy, Amazon, and Google all signing large compute contracts with OpenAI directly.
This seems like a dire situation. Today we have a post dissecting Microsoft’s fumble as well as a public interview with Satya Nadella and our dear friend Dwarkesh Patel where we challenged him on their AI strategy and execution.
Now Microsoft’s investments in AI are back, and the AI giant has never had such high demand for Accelerated Computing. The Redmond titan has woken up to it going down the wrong path and has dramatically shifted course. With the newly announced OpenAI deal, Azure growth is set to Accelerate in the upcoming quarters as forecasted by our Tokenomics model.
Source: SemiAnalysis Tokenomics Model
Microsoft plays in every single part of the AI Token Economic Stack, is witnessing accelerated growth, and we expect the trend to continue in coming quarters and years....
....MUCH MORE
*So, with the juxtaposition of the current equity market gyrations and this article, I get to reprise one of the most inspired bits of market commentary I've ever seen.
On Friday March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq closed at 5048.62, it's all-time high.
On the following Monday the Naz was down 141 points. Tuesday, 200.
The index had begun a 30-month decline to it's September 24, 2002 intra-day low of 1,169.04,
down 77%.
This became one of my favorite songs:
A long, long week ago
I can still remember how the market used to make me smile
What I'd do when I had the chance
Is get myself a cash advance
And add another tech stock to the pile.
With every speech that he delivered
Bad news on the rate front
Still I'd take one more punt
When I heard about the CPI
I lost my fortune and my pride
The day the NASDAQ died
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
We're right back where we were in July
Q COM at 150 or above?
'Cos your plumber told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio?
So you can't just take a long-term view
Your broker shut you down
No more margin could be found
Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck
But Friday I ran out of luck
It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July
And E-trade won't pick up the phone
But that's not how it used to be
When investors snapped up EMC
With cash they borrowed easily
And a quote that flashed up permanently green
Joel Klein slapped Mister Softee down
The courtroom was adjourned
A guilty verdict was returned
And while Gilder read a book on quarks
Buffet smirked and Greenspan barked
The bulls were eaten by the sharks
The day, the NASDAQ died
Unsinkable and now under the Atlantic
We're at four thou and falling fast
All at once the bottom-fishers pounced
But that just caused a dead-cat bounce
'Cos Mister Softee, from the sidelines, preannounced
While the margin calls were coming fast
We all were forced to sell
Our Apple, E-Bay and Intel
Then the bear funds moved to take the field
And the long bond shed a point of yield
Was Glass-Steagall ever really repealed?
The day, the NASDAQ day
Millionaires all hot and bothered
With no cash left to buy again
So come on, Fed be anxious, com-pen-sate
By lowering the discount rate
'Cause easy money is a bubble's only friend
I received the dreaded margin call
No broker born in hell
Could make me want to sell
But as my gains fell fast into the crash
E-Trade began demanding cash
The talking heads were talking trash
The day, the NASDAQ died
I asked him for their earnings news
But he just smiled and turned away
I logged on to the trading floor
Where I made my fortune weeks before
But they demanded to see cash before I played
Kudlow cried and Barton dreamed
Not a bullish word was spoken
The daytraders were choking
AMAT, Dell and Infocast
Couldn't catch a bid and faded fast
The day, the NASDAQ died
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
I poured my paycheck into Datek
Now my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July
