Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Capital Markets: "Trump Speaks with Xi and Takaichi but Chinese-Japanese Tensions Remain High"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview:   The US dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen is the notable exception. It leads the major currencies with around a 0.35% gain as the dollar slips to a four-day low near JPY156 after peaking last week slightly shy of JPY158. The dollar-bloc currencies join the Swiss franc and Swedish krona nursing small losses. With the pendulum swinging back in favor a Fed cut next month, emerging market currencies have caught a bid. There are a couple of minor exceptions and the Russian ruble, which is off almost 0.6%. 

US stocks extended the pre-weekend recovery yesterday, and the S&P 500 posted its largest gain in a little over a month (1.55%) but the knock-on effect in the Asia Pacific was mixed. Japanese markets, returning from the long holiday weekend were themselves mixed. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia markets rose. Most of the others did not. Europe's Stoxx 600 is treading water, straddling little changed levels in late morning transactions. US index futures are a touch softer (~-0.10-0.25%). The benchmark 10-year yield rose 2.5 bp in Tokyo to about 1.80%. Last week's high, near 1.85%, was the highest since 2008. European yields are mostly a little softer, with UK and French yields leading with a little more than a basis point decline. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from about 4.16% last Thursday to almost 4.02% yesterday. It has not traded below 4.0% this month and the market seems hesitant to drive it through it. The yield is near 4.03% now. Gold reached a seven-day high near $4156 earlier today but is struggling to sustain the upside momentum. It recorded the session low, a little below $4110 as European markets were opening and buyers emerged that lifted the yellow metal back to $4140. January WTI is consolidating in the upper end of yesterday's range but is holding below $59 so far today. 

USD: Today is the fourth consecutive session that the Dollar Index is confined to a narrow range of about 100.00 to 100.40....

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