It doesn't really matter how the Supremes rule, tariffs of one sort or another will be in place at the end of 2025 and the US, Mexico, Canada trade agreement will be renegotiated early next summer.
In the meantime our best guess is that the Court will rule against the Administration on at least one of the points being argued, the pundits will splash headlines about refunding the money already collected (I think it was $32 billion last month), the deficit will be calculated to grow, treasuries will get sold and I will be posting that "this isn't the real market whack" but the one before the real star-spangled, bubble-bursting, all-American market panic.
From Yahoo Finance, November 4:
This week's highly anticipated arguments around President Trump's use of emergency powers have many calling the case a toss-up.
Tariff watchers have had this Wednesday circled on their calendars for weeks now, as the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the legality of the authority President Trump has used to impose the lion's share of his tariffs.
That’s in part because observers are split about how things will play out once deliberations begin and ahead of a decision that could come before the end of the year.
The case — formally known as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump — is one that experts in both the legal and trade space are calling a toss-up. And it's made all the more fraught by Trump's keen personal interest in the outcome and a White House public pressure campaign already in evidence.
As for the projections, the odds are notable in how little confidence there is in any outcome.
In a Yahoo Finance interview recently, both Raymond James managing director Ed Mills and Veda Partners managing partner Henrietta Treyz floated coin-flip level 50% odds, with Treyz adding a base case from "50% to 65% odds that the Supreme Court will side with two lower courts and say the president doesn't have this authority."....
....MUCH MORE
