Last month's temperature was within 1/100 of a degree C of our prop bet target and an unfamiliar flash of brilliance, easily suppressed, came to mind:
0.01°C away from the target.
If I was smart I'd just declare victory today, a full 15 months ahead of schedule and let the bet melt into the noise of the internet but as they say at the better science schools: Homie don't roll that way.
And now the decline has turned higher.
From Dr. Roy Spencer at the University of Alabama-Huntsville (along with Santa Clara CA's Remote Sensing Systems, one of the two keepers of the satellite record), March 3:
UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for February, 2025: +0.50 deg. C
The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2025 was +0.50 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up a little from the January, 2025 anomaly of +0.45 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through February 2025) remains at +0.15 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans)....
....MUCH MORE
Our proposition bet has the UAH figure falling from +0.95°C the day we announced the bet, May 2, 2024 (three days later the April figure was announced, +1.05°C, not very good timing on the part of yours truly) to +0.45°C by the termination date:
Here's a prop bet for you. By May 15, 2026 we will see the satellite-
measured-inferred global lower atmospheric temperature anomaly decline by at least 1/2 degree C.The two keepers of the satellite record are Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa CA and the University of Alabama-Huntsville.
Here's the temperature graph from UAH:....
If interested here is the series of monthly posts tracking the bet.
