Friday, March 28, 2025

Capital Markets: "Friday Surprises: Tokyo Inflation on the Upside, France and Spain on the Downside, Stronger UK Retail Sales"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar, which struggled yesterday, is trading higher against most currencies today. The Japanese yen an exception among the G10 currencies. The higher-than-expected March Tokyo CPI had little impact on BOJ expectations, the pullback in the US 10-year yield, around seven basis points from yesterday's high, has helped underpin the yen. The UK reported stronger than expected retail sales and its first trade surplus, excluding precious metals, in almost four years has helped sterling. Among emerging market currencies, those from central Europe have been weighed down by the heavier euro. The Russian ruble, South African rand, and Indian rupee are the best performers.

The US auto tariffs this week and more coming next week have roiled equity markets. Tokyo, Taiwan, and South Korean markets fell by more than 1% today. Among the large bourses, only Australia settled higher. India is struggled. The most powerful earthquake in a 100-years hit Myanmar, with reverberations in Thailand and Vietnam. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the third consecutive session and the sixth in the past seven. US index futures are softer. Bond markets have rallied. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly around four basis points lower, with the 10-year Gilt off a little more than five basis points, despite the strong retail sales. Gold is extending yesterday's 1.25% gain to reach a new record high near $3086. It finished last week near $3022. May WTI is hovering near $70, which puts it up almost 2.6% on the week, which will be the third consecutive weekly advance. It settled near $68.30 last week....

....MUCH MORE