From Marc to Market:
Overview: Shortly after the North American markets closed, before any results were known, the market jumped back into the "Trump trade," which it had pared on Tuesday. The dollar and US interest rates soared. The euro is the hardest hit among the G10 currencies today, off about 1.6% and the Canadian dollar, the best performer with about a 0.5% loss. Emerging market currencies have also been sold. The worst performer is the Mexican peso, which is off about 2.7%, followed by Hungary, which is 2.1% lower. There are five five states that have not yet been declared (Alaska, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Maine). Yet, even if Harris wins in all of them, she will not have enough electoral college votes. However, Trump appears to have carried Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia, which he did not in 2020.The Republicans appear to have captured the Senate, while the House is still too close to call.
Equities in Asia Pacific were mixed. The Nikkei rallied 2.6%, but the Hang Seng fell nearly as much. Taiwan rose 0.5% and South Korea fell by as much. Many smaller bourses were weaker. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up a1.45%, which is sustained would be the largest gain in three months. US index futures are sharply higher--the NASDAQ is up 1.8% and the S&P 500 is up 2.3%. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 bp lower, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has soared more than 16 bp to near 4.44%, the highest since late June. The two-year yield is eight basis points higher at 4.26%. Gold settled near $2745 yesterday and was sold to almost $2701 today before recovering back above $2720. December WTI, which has been trending higher for the past five sessions, has been set back today. It settled near $72 and fell to about $70.25. It is back above $71 in European turnover....
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