From Bloomberg November 21:
- More difficult for AI giant to impress after knockout quarters
- Sales forecast didn’t match more optimistic projections
Nvidia Corp.’s estimate-beating results would be the envy of most companies, but after a more than 800% share-price gain in two years, great is no longer good enough for Wall Street.
The main sticking point was the revenue forecast for the current quarter, which exceeded the analyst estimate by a mere $400 million. It marked the second-consecutive period that Nvidia’s quarterly sales projection didn’t top the average analyst estimate by $1 billion or more, suggesting that the hyper growth that has fueled its rally is rapidly fading.
While that didn’t exactly trigger the big stock swing that many were bracing for thanks to management’s assurances that demand for new Blackwell chips is “staggering,” it’s clearly going to be a lot harder to impress investors. The shares fell by around 3% in premarket trade on Thursday.
“The market has begun to understand that Nvidia won’t be able to deliver that kind of beat every quarter,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “You have to really shoot out the lights, give a real knockout, to see the kind of rallies we have seen in recent quarters.”
Even though there was an unusually large gap between the highest and lowest analyst estimates for fourth quarter sales, the fact that the average was relatively close to Nvidia’s forecast shows that after many quarters of wildly underestimating its financial performance, Wall Street has finally caught up....
....MUCH MORE
And more to come.
"Analysts update Nvidia stock price target ahead of earnings"
As has been the case for the last couple years, the reported quarter will be important but the guidance for the next report will be much more so....
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....For what it's worth the stock has stopped at the $149-and-change level four times since November 7th (all-time high $149.77 on the 8th). If it fails to get through that in tomorrow's after-hours trading, and then hold it on Thursday I would expect hot money to go in search of other trades.Daily highs:
Nov 14 - $149.00
Nov 13 - $149.33
Nov 12 - $149.65
Nov 08 - $149.77
$147.01 up $6.86 (+4.89%) at today's regular session close, settling at $147.70 up $0.69 after-hours.
If I had to guess, and I'm only a marginally good guesser, I'd say beat-and-raise from the company and 'meh' from the market.The joys of the Keynesian Beauty Contest: trying to figure-out both the report and how the judges respond to the report.
In pre-market trade the stock is at $144.60 down $1.29 (-0.88%). Meh.
