Monday, July 29, 2024

"No longer rare: China's overproduction sends rare-earth prices tanking"

As most of our long-suffering readers (I tend to repeat myself) know, they've never been that rare. From 2022's "Huge rare earth reserve discovered in Turkey, but experts caution that ‘grade is king’"

Not just grade. The composition of a deposit, the amounts of the 17 rare earth elements is critical. As one example, the Mountain Pass mine in the U.S. despite its relatively high grade (8% REEs) is actually not as valuable as some lower grade mines with a more profitable mix.

Additionally, exploitation of a REE resource is highly dependent on processing and supply chain factors that can not quickly be brought into being, it's one thing to have the deposit, quite another to have, for example, the end product, a neodymium magnet....

From Nikkei Asia, July 19:

Beijing's new restrictions on industry fail to reverse trend

International prices of rare-earth elements have plunged 20% over the past year as overproduction in China has caused a supply glut.

Seeking to tighten its grip on the industry, China in June put out a list of regulations to protect supplies of these economically important metals. The regulations, issued by the State Council and taking effect on Oct. 1, say rare-earth resources belong to the state.

But despite Beijing's attempt at tighter controls on the industry, the market has remained in the doldrums.

Neodymium was priced 23% lower on July 11 than in late July 2023, according to Argus Media. Dysprosium was down 24%.

A price index published by the Association of China Rare Earth Industry shows the same pattern. Based on transaction data from rare-earth companies, it had fallen roughly 20% from late July 2023 as of Thursday.

The 17 metals collectively known as rare-earth elements have been called the "vitamins of industry," since they improve the performance of materials when added in small amounts....

....MUCH MORE 

Most recently on the price moves, June 4's "Prices for rare earth magnetic materials fall on low demand":
Interesting both for the elements themselves and their miners and possibly more important for the insight into end-uses and users....

There's a reason China leads the world in that value chain infrastructure, in no small part because a) most rare earth deposits come out of the ground slightly radioactive—because they are usually found in proximity to uranium and thorium, that's the reason Greenland won't even allow exploration and b) we've been tracking the doings of the big dog since 2009's "With a Name Like Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., it has to be good (600111:Shanghai)". Unfortunately in Inner Mongolia they actually named this muck Baotou Toxic Lake:

https://ychef.files.bbci.co.uk/1600x900/p02n9y28.webp

The BBC calls it The Worst Place On Earth.