Sunday, July 21, 2024

China's Third Plenum: "Xi’s Big Economic Meeting Shows Party Bracing for Slower Growth"

From Bloomberg via MSN, July 19:

President Xi Jinping vowed to make “high-quality development” the guiding force of the world’s No. 2 economy, showing few initial signs that the top leadership is preparing to unleash major steps to boost demand or arrest the property slump.

The ruling Communist Party signaled China will stay on course with Xi’s plan to use advanced manufacturing to generate growth, in a vaguely worded statement Thursday marking the close of a twice-a-decade conclave that’s often heralded major policy shifts. The focus on the factory engine could increase trade tensions, with rising Chinese exports prompting fresh tariffs from the US and the European Union.

“High-quality development is the top mission of building a modern socialist country,” the official Xinhua News Agency said after the four-day meeting in Beijing. That vague slogan is typically interpreted to emphasize the quality of economic growth over its absolute pace. It centers on Xi’s ambitions to move up the value chain through tech innovation and become more resilient against US trade curbs.

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 ....MUCH MORE

 Readers who have been with us for a while may remember the intro to and outro from January 31, 2023's "What If China Had A Reopening And Nobody Cared?":

China isn't reopening, it has reopened. This is it. And despite the record savings the population has accumulated over the last three years we are not seeing a wave of demand in the domestic economy. Using one of the most basic proxies for what is actually going on, the price of pork, the grand reopening, is, to say the least, muted. This is especially true considering the country just celebrated the largest, most festive holiday on the calendar.....
*****
....One data point does not make a trend but it does raise the possibility that the facile expectation of a boom in Chinese consumption is wrong.

What if, and I'm just spitballing here, what if the giant ball of savings is being targeted by the rapidly aging population as a retirement cushion, i.e. future consumption, not current?

That would leave China's export economy to carry the weight.

And that is not looking very promising at the moment:....

And the headline story from Asia Times, February 11:....

Remember?  5:42 AM Pacific Standard Time? No?

Anyhoo, here's Business Insider, July 19, 2024:

China's consumers aren't buying stuff, but it's not because they're broke