From the Bipartisian Policy Center, June 12, 2024:
Tracking the Federal Deficit: May 2024
- $348 billion deficit, increasing year-over-year (YOY) by $108 billion.
- $324 billion in revenues, increased YOY by $17 billion (5%)
- $672 billion in outlays, increased YOY by $124 billion (23%)
- The May 2023 deficit was impacted by unique timing shifts in outlays, if not for which the deficit would have increased $14 billion YOY in May 2024.*
Fiscal Year Comparisons with FY2023
- The government is running a cumulative deficit of $1.2 trillion so far in FY2024 ($46 billion less than the same period in the prior fiscal year when adjusted for timing shifts*).
- Revenues were $3.3 trillion through May, an increase of 10%, largely due to:
- $221 billion (8%) increase in individual income and payroll tax revenue. Of this amount, non-withheld payments of income and payroll taxes increased by $77 billion (11%), largely reflecting delayed tax filings last year partially attributable to tax relief provided by the IRS to those affected by natural disasters.
- $76 billion (33%) increase in corporate income taxes, largely attributable to business tax receipts that were delayed due to tax relief provided by the IRS in areas affected by natural disasters.
- $37 billion (12%) decrease in individual income tax refunds, which increased net receipts. This reflects slowing Employee Retention Tax Credit refunds compared to the same period last year; the program has been subject to an IRS moratorium since September 2023.
- Outlays were $4.4 trillion through May, an increase of 6%, largely due to:*
- $185 billion (42%) increase in net interest payments on the public debt from rising interest rates and a growing debt burden.
- $117 billion (6%) increase in the largest mandatory spending programs, such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, reflecting growing numbers of recipients and benefit levels for both Social Security and Medicare Advantage benefits. This also reflects the 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security that went into effect this year.
- $39 billion (8%) increase in spending by the Department of Defense for military personnel and the Department’s operations and maintenance.
- $27 billion (14%) increase in spending by the Department of Veterans Affairs due to rising costs and health care usage.
- $24 billion (20%) decrease in spending by the Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Service, largely due to COVID-19 emergency expanded Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits that ended in March 2023.
- $18 billion (13%) increase in certain refundable tax credits, such as those that offset the costs of health insurance purchased through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces (reflecting higher enrollments).
- $12 billion decrease in international security assistance programs primarily due to emergency support for Ukraine in the first eight months of FY2024. The rate of spending is expected to increase due to recent enacted funding for Ukraine, Israel, and countries in the Indo-Pacific Region.
- Waning funding for pandemic recovery programs and related expansions, following trends recorded in prior months this year.
Analysis:....
....MUCH MORE
