Monday, June 24, 2024

Capital Markets: "US Dollar Offered, but Intra-Day Momentum Indicators are Stretched"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The Dollar Index reached its best level since May 1 before the weekend but has come back softer against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. There is no apparent driver, and the intraday day momentum indicators caution against expecting much in the way of follow through gains in North America. The dollar edged closed to JPY160 and triggered official intervention warnings. The market has turned cautious and is threatening to end the yen's seven-day slide. Among emerging market currencies, the South African rand, Turkish lira, and a few East Asian currencies are softer including the Chinese yuan.

Equities are mostly higher, but the Asia Pacific region struggled. Among the large markets, only Japan and India managed to rise. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites and Taiwan's Taiex fell by over 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is recouping most of the pre-weekend loss (~0.75%), while US index futures are trading with a firmer bias. Benchmark 10-year yields are mixed. European premiums over Germany are narrower. European bond yields are mostly 2-3 bp lower while the 10-year Germany Bund yield is a basis point higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is little changed near 4.25%. It rose about 3.5 basis points last week after falling nearly 28 bp in the previous two weeks. Gold recorded a bearish outside down day ahead of the weekend but there has been no follow through selling and softer dollar may have helped give it a mild bid today. It is stalling near the 20-day moving average (~$2332.50). August WTI rallied nearly 3.5% for the second consecutive week last week to approach $82 a barrel. It pulled back before the weekend but is firmer today above $81....

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