Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Ahead Of Tomorrow's CPI Report, The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast

The May numbers to be reported tomorrow and the June numbers to be reported in July are almost unbelievably similar.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, June 11:

Inflation, month-over-month percent change 

Month          CPI    Core CPI    PCE    Core PCE    Updated
June 2024    0.09    0.29          0.10      0.22             06/11
May 2024     0.08    0.30         0.10      0.23             06/11

....MUCH MORE, year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter change, methodology...

That 0.08% monthly rate annualizes out to just under 1% per annum, 0.96%. If only it would be so. But it won't.