Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Capital Markets: "RBA Holds Fire, Sterling Reaches Best Level since last June, and the Dollar Struggles to Find Much Traction"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The jump in oil prices is the newest shock and the May WTI contract is holding above $80 a barrel as it consolidates yesterday's surge. A week ago, it settled near $73.20. Australian and New Zealand bond yields moved lower, partly in catch-up and partly after the RBA stood pat. South Korean bonds also rallied on the back of softer inflation (4.2% vs. 4.8%). But European and US benchmark yields is 2-4 bp higher. The large equity markets in Asia Pacific advanced with the exception of Hong Kong. Europe's Stoxx 600 slipped fractionally yesterday to snap a three-day advance but has recouped it and more today. Its bank share index is up 1.3% today, its sixth gain in seven sessions. US equity futures are also trading with a firmer bias.

The US dollar is mostly heavier today. Among the G10 currencies, the Australian dollar is the weakest following the RBA's decision, and the Japanese yen softer within yesterday's range. Sterling is the star performer, gaining about 0.8% to reach a new high since last June and is above $1.2500 in the European morning. The Canadian dollar is in the middle of the pack today, but it is extending its gains into the seventh consecutive session. Most emerging market currencies, but the Turkish lira and Russian rouble are also higher against the greenback. Gold is consolidating after recovering nearly $50 an ounce yesterday to $1990. It is trading between $1977 and $1986 today.

Asia Pacific
The Reserve Bank of Australia joined the Bank of Canada in pausing its monetary tightening cycle....