Wednesday, March 8, 2023

"Any attempt at analysis of Fed policy and market moves by traditional means...is just so much blather"

That's me, quoting myself.

I was struck by much of the irrelevance of yesterday's commentary on Fed Chairman Powell's Congressional testimony. 

[irrelevant sidebar: testimony has the same Latin root as testicles, it comes from from the Roman practice of guys grabbing their dangly bits when swearing an oath. Very appropriate.]

Here's the headline quote and context from last June:

StockCats Asks For Clarification

I have a feeling that lands somewhere in "the nebulous region between mere suspicion and probable cause"
 (LaFave & Israel on U.S. v. Ramsey, 431 U.S. 606 [1977])
that there is some sort of misdirection going on that I'm not understanding.
If so, any attempt at analysis of Fed policy and market moves by traditional means, global macro, central bank policy and practice, market internals such as options gamma etc., etc. is just so much blather.
And I keep coming back to the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2019 as the period when things were getting very weird.

More to come (maybe)

Meaning that unless one is in that very small club that Chairman Powell was calling and meeting with in the 213 days bracketing the arrival of Covid in the headlines (Sept. 1, 2019 - March 31, 2020), one is probably incorrect in ones interpretation of events then and now. 

Your humble blogger included. But keep an eye on repo and reverse repo, nonetheless.

With that, back to StockCats for what truly matters: 

Questions America Wants Answered: Can The Fed Engineer A Soft Landing?

Via Stock Cats: 

That is a fortunate cat. As we have seen in other studies, for a cat four stories are very survivable and ten stories are survivable but in-between, say five to seven stories,the risk almost doubles.

Dead Cat Bounce: What is the Terminal Velocity of a Cat?

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