From the New York Post, November 1:
Is a meat recession coming?
....“That drought has been so prolonged, the opportunities to graze or for ranchers to put cattle in the pasture has sharply declined,” which is forcing ranchers to put cattle into feedlots at a faster pace, Kunisch said.
On top of that, breeders are also culling more unbred female cattle at a faster pace, which effectively reduces the supply of future animals for slaughter, according to Kunisch.
“Those future breeding animals have been liquidated,” he said.
Unfortunately, even when the drought begins to mitigate and pasture conditions improve, “those ranchers will start to retain female animals for breeding, to increase their breeding stock.”
This means supplies will become even tighter as those ranchers start to rebuild their breeding herd. It takes roughly 19 to 24 months from when a rancher decides to use a female for breeding to when its offspring are ready to be slaughtered.
That coupled with the higher cost of certain commodities, such as corn and wheat as well as operating costs, such as fuel and labor charges, is creating “persistent higher cattle prices, which can lead to higher beef prices,” Kunisch said.
....MUCH MORE
Where Inflation Will Come From Next: Pork and Soybean Oil
