Friday, November 11, 2022

Ukraine: Possible Futures

We (and many others) have looked at the possibility of Ukraine being partitioned a few times. 

The usual starting point is the (approximate) division of the votes in the 2010 Presidential run-off election which is also (again approximately) the Uke/Rus language division:

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/02/23/article-0-1BBF828700000578-989_964x663.jpg

Daily Mail, February 23, 2014

That division line goes back centuries and was first linked on our pages after the 2014 coup

This depiction is before factoring-in any Polish involvement which could range from a friendly merger to a hostile takeover of Western Ukraine, definitely recovering Lviv/Lwow/Lvov/Lemberg and possibly all the way east to Kyiv. Here Mr. Butler ties together those ideas with the land grab* that started after the breakup of the USSR in 1991, which happens to be squarely in our wheelhouse.

Phil Butler via ZeroHedge:

Russians are perplexed at the news that troops will retreat from the right bank of the Dnieper River. Considering all the recent setbacks, this has made even the most stalwart patriots in Moscow feel testy. Just as anticipation of a significant Russian offensive is on the horizon, Russian forces take the exit stage left yet again. Just when General Sergei “Armageddon” Surovikin had Kyiv ready to beg for mercy and electricity. The whole world is squirming. Russian back channels are a flurry of complaints. And nobody seems to know anything. This is strange since the answer is as plain as the proverbial nose on anybody’s face. The elites have put the brakes on.
To be honest, I was astonished to hear the news from Putin’s Defense Minister Shoigu myself. I contacted a few insiders to see what was up, but their disbelief at the news was as chiseled as my own. Then it hit me: Putin, the history student. And, Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan connecting with his counterpart in Russia, former FSB Director Nikolai Patrushev, had experts like retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas MacGregor and others speculating this week about U.S. boots ready to hit the ground in western Ukraine. MacGregor, the soldier, dubbed “America’s finest warfighter” after his exploits in Iraq, was on Judging Freedom warning of the idiocy of committing troops.

The backchannel talks between the former deputy to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's aide were probably more about a peace deal than a nuclear warning aimed at Putin. The newsreel on Sullivan supposedly threatening the Kremlin about “what if” Russia uses a nuke was a sham intended to let Biden and his boss Barack Obama save face.

Yes, it now seems more evident that Biden, Obama, Hillary, and whoever wound them up (read on) is running this horror show. Save that for later. The Russians pulling back across the Dnieper River (which subdivides Ukraine) and letting what’s left of Zelenzky’s Nazis take it is about partitioning Ukraine. We should have known this was in the offing the instant Putin's ally, Chechyan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov swore this would never happen. His message was to the faithful, though some did not hear it—factor in Sullivan’s visit and talks with Putin’s advisors. Take note of how Zelensky is backing up on the assertion he would not talk to anyone but Putin’s successor. Then, Europe needs the grain from Ukraine (this is key).

So, now we face a new world with a precedent from the 1600s. I won’t bore you with the history lesson (read the linked paper), but this current Ukraine mess is part of the never-ending mess Europe has always been. And to certify I am right, just consider the opposite of what the Atlantic Council says here. The Russians say Poland will move into western Ukraine; the Washington think tanks say it’s a lie, which means it’s the truth.

So, let’s get down to it. Who is pulling the strings on this proxy war in Ukraine? Cargill is one of the concerns running Washington. I wonder how many know this? I’m pretty sure very few will have noticed that this American group owns Ukraine’s biggest grain terminal. Last year the investor bought the controlling stake in a Ukraine concern called Neptune, which owns the country’s largest grain terminal outside Odessa, and just about everything surrounding it. But a grain terminal on the Black Sea is only a hint at what’s happening on the steppes of Russia. Let’s warm up with a Tweet by President Biden back in May when baby formula was in short supply.
Now that we’re focused on Cargill, the group’s questionable record in Central America is a point we should not miss. When Vice President Kamala Harris announced corporations “investing” in Guatemala and other countries in the region to allegedly stem the flow of migrants to America via her “Call to Action” initiative, a red flag popped up for me. Remember Cargill and NestlĂ© resumed business with Guatemalan palm oil supplier REPSA (Reforestadora de Palma S.A.) in 2018? This company has one of the worst records on Earth where corruption, bribery, violence, and intimidation are concerned. Yes, Central America, but I use the example to show what we all already understand. These multinationals are the root cause of many of the problems humanity faces. And it’s not just energy companies. Activists have described Cargill as “the worst company in the world,” and for good reasons. Wage fixing in the U.S. too? Cargill, Bill Gates, and lab-made meat?....

....MORE

From here the writer spins off into la-la land, Hunter Biden was not the Chair of the U.N.'s World Food Program, he was chair of the affiliated World Food Program USA.

Calling Cargill "the Rothschilds of the United States" just muddies the waters, both families have power but in very different ways.

ZH appends their usual disclaimer:
Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
*See, for example:

December 2014's ""The Corporate Takeover of Ukrainian Agriculture"
August 2021's "In fertile Ukraine, a 20-year freeze on the sale of farmland is lifted -- with uncertain consequences"

One of the reasons for the Maidan Revolution was to open the sale of Ukrainian land to foreigners—it's much too good for the Ukes to keep to themselves—but that step, required by the IMF as a condition of any further loans to replace the loans that were stolen and laundered (just what was Templeton up to with the Ukrainian sovereign debt bets?), that step needs a referendum and enabling legislation.

But this phase, also required by the IMF, is the starting point.

And many more including such hits as:

Okay Kids: Here's One Of The Reasons We Had That Whole Ukraine Maidan 2014 Revolution Thingy
....What I do know is that there is going to be something on the order of $100 billion worth of Ukrainian farmland changing hands over the next decade which is getting to be serious money. Except maybe for Musk and Bezos. And the CIA. And the State Department. and...

Will We Ever Find The Looted Billions The IMF Sent To Ukraine? Ihor Kolomoisky's Adventures In America

...On April 1, 2020 Farmlandgrab had a quick overview of the state of play from the World Socialist Web Site (WSWS among the cognoscenti):
A law to privatise farmland, ultimately for the benefit of global finance and agribusiness, was pushed through Parliament under pressure from the IMF in the context of the coronavirus crisis.

Very related: 

UPDATED—Fundraising Lessons From Volodymyr Zelensky: Get In Front Of The World Economic Forum.... Ask For $5 Billion.... Per Month

Update below.
Original post:

From Fortune, May 23:  

Zelensky pitches Western leaders at Davos on the business opportunities that would come from giving Ukraine $5 billion a month

The World Economic Forum annual meeting opened in Davos, Switzerland on Monday morning, with as grim a message as the elite gathering has heard in many years.

In the three-day summit’s opening address, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, dressed in his trademark wartime olive-green T-shirt, and projected on monitors from Kyiv, told about 1,000 CEOs and government officials that Ukraine needs $5 billion a month, beginning immediately, in order to stave off full-blown economic collapse—a collapse that would have deep global ramifications.

“The amount of work is enormous,” he said. “We have more than a half a trillion dollars in losses, and tens of thousands of facilities destroyed. We need to rebuild entire cities and industries.”

Yet rather than describing the dire situation as a crisis, Zelensky cast it as a potentially lucrative opportunity for Western countries and companies.

"Patronage" for investors 
 Zelensky said Ukraine would have a “special, historically significant model of rebuilding,” in which companies and countries could choose a specific region or mine to rebuild....

So, getting closer to an answer, more to come.