Nah, like Speaker Pelosi's ice cream freezers, it's sub-zero all the way.*
From MarketWatch via MSN, November 7:
THE TELLA team of equity analysts at Goldman Sachs Group cut their expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth through 2024, citing a plethora of headwinds that will likely continue to weigh on corporate profit margins.
The team, led by Goldman’s top equity strategist, David Kostin, lowered its 2023 EPS growth forecast to 0%, while anticipating that profits will grow only modestly the following year. Analysts cited a contraction in net margins seen during the third-quarter earnings season as the inspiration for its changing outlook.
“Following a weak [Q3] earnings season in which S&P 500 net margins declined
year/year for the first time since the pandemic, we lower our EPS forecasts for
2022 (to $224 from $226), 2023 (to $224 from $234) and 2024 (to $237 from $243),” the team wrote in a note dated Sunday.
Should the U.S. economy slide into a recession, “we expect S&P 500 [earnings per share] would fall by 11%,” Kostin and his team wrote....
Repeating For Clarity and Emphasis...
....For the broader market, first comes p/e multiple contraction followed by revenues held up only by inflation and should we enter a recession, declining earnings....
And May:
...The thing to know about inflation at this point is that it is becoming entrenched, that rather than going higher we should watch for it going wider. So while the folks who last year were scoffing that it's only lumber and it's only used cars will rejoice and trumpet the news from the rooftops when the headline number gets back below 8%, the Bank for International Settlements is warning about potential wage-price spirals....****....And a hundred or so other posts on rates and inflation and speaking of which, I just saw a forecast for Britain's economy: 10% inflation and 0% growth.There's a word for that, stag-something, a word the used cars and lumber peeps were scoffing at not that long ago....
