Thursday, November 3, 2022

Elliot Management: "World ‘plunging towards societal collapse’ as era of cheap money ends"

In other news: "Meghan Markle Wears a Chic Trench Coat in a Rare Look at Her Off-Duty Style"

From The Telegraph via Yahoo Finance:

The global economy is on the path to hyperinflation and risks societal collapse if soaring prices are not brought under control, one of the world’s biggest hedge funds has warned.

Elliott Management, the hedge fund founded by Wall Street billionaire Paul Singer, hit out at central bank rate-setters in an apocalyptic warning to clients as rate-setters bring the era of ultra-cheap money to an abrupt end.

The world economy faces an “extremely challenging” outlook and hyperinflation could result in “global societal collapse and civil or international strife”, the letter to clients said, the Financial Times reported. It said central banks have been “dishonest” in deflecting blame for the price surge from their prolonged use of ultra-loose monetary policy.

Elliott is one of the most influential hedge funds in the world and is feared in corporate boardrooms for its approach to investor activism.

Central banks are being forced into rapid interest rate rises to tackle inflation with the rate of price growth hitting double digits and a four-decade high in the UK.

The US Federal Reserve voted for its fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase to its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday while the Bank of England followed with a 0.75 percentage point jump on Thursday, the eighth straight increase.

Stock markets have already suffered a tough year as the global economic outlook darkens and interest rates are pushed to levels last seen before the financial crisis. But Elliott believes that investors should brace for a “a seriously adverse unwind of the everything bubble” because of the number of “frightening and seriously negative possibilities”.

The “everything bubble” refers to the surge in a range of investments, including stocks, bonds and house prices, since the financial crisis after central banks left interest rates at rock bottom levels for years and cranked up the printing presses under quantitative easing....

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I'm not sure why Mr. Singer is talking about hyperinflation, that term has a specific meaning, 50%, or higher, per month price increases, that is the result of monetizing government deficit spending as it happens, i.e. printing money, and the major economies are at least 10 years from that.

On the other hand there is the probability that Central Banks will accept 4% CPI, declare victory and move on to other stuff. Thirdly, a decade of 10% annual inflation is a real possibility if the Central Banks decide their over-leveraged compadres in the private sector are worthy of being bailed out.

For the latter two scenarios the top-of-mind public riot-control equity names are Taser International (TASR) and Lamperd Less Lethal Inc. (LLLI).

Should the hyperinflation scenario actually occur you would probably want the old-line armaments purveyors, Northrup-Grumman (NOC), Ratheon (RTN) or BAE Systems (BA:lon) come to mind.

And trench coats? Burberry from $2490.00.