Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Capital Markets: "Poor Chinese and Japanese Data Are Not Deterring Euphoria"

Rather, they are exciting it, stimmies baby, stimmies.
From Marc to Market:

Overview: Recent developments have spurred a euphoria that is exciting the animal spirits. Greater confidence that US inflation has peaked, and new initiatives from China, and yesterday’s Biden-Xi meeting are all feeding this narrative. The dollar, which slumped last week, is sliding anew today. Strategically, we anticipated the turn, but tactically, we thought last week’s move had stretched the near-term technical condition. The dollar is sharply lower (~-1%) against half of the G10 currencies and weaker against most emerging market currencies. Australian equities bucked the regional trend that saw the large Asia Pacific bourses rally, led by Hong Kong’s 4.1% gain. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is struggling to extend its rally into a fourth session, while US equity futures are extending yesterday’s gains. Most European benchmark yields are off 5-7 bp, though Italian yields are off around 10 bp. The 10-year US Treasury yield is about five basis points lower at 3.80%. 

Lower yields and a softer dollar are helping gold extend its recent gains to almost $1785 before consolidating in the European morning. December WTI got down to around $85.80 before steadying. US natgas is up 2.2% while Europe’s benchmark has jumped almost 9% after yesterdays 20% rally. Iron ore consolidated yesterday’s 2.5% advance. December copper is flattish after yesterday’s 2.0% rally pared last week’s nearly 6.2% surge. December wheat is off 1.3% to give back most of the gains of the past two sessions.

Asia Pacific
There is poor economic news from Japan and China....